The prediction of below-normal rainfall was disclosed by international weather experts during the recently-held South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Nepal has been a regular participant of the forum for the last six years.
At the end of the two-day meeting, the participants shared overall monsoon predictions for South Asian countries.As per a publication released by SASCOF, below-normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of the western (Pakistan), central (India) and south-western (Sri Lanka) parts of South Asia and some areas of the northeast (parts of Bangladesh and Myanmar). Only the southern islands of the Maldives are expected to see above normal rainfall.
"This annual prediction has always turned out to be correct as international experts are involved in making the meteorological assessments. Last year's prediction also turned out to be true and the possibility of a correct prediction is high this year as well," said Barun Paneru, a meteorologist.
Based on the SASCOF report, below normal rainfall will be experienced across Nepal, except in the Far Western and Eastern Regions.
The Meteorological Forecasting Division (MFD) of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) considers an average of 1,400 mm of rainfall across the country as standard monsoon rainfall. As per the prediction for this year, the rainfall will be lower than this annual level. The standard for normal rainfall is calculated by taking the average monsoon rainfall of the past 30 years.
"Although the report says the monsoon will be weak this year, the threat of landslides induced by the recent earthquakes is still very real. The cracks caused by the tremors do not need heavy monsoon rainfall to trigger landslides; average rainfall will do," said Poudel.
Experts have indicated the formation of El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean as being behind the predicted weak monsoon in South Asia, including Nepal.
"These weather conditions are due to the building up of high temperatures over the sub-continent until they reach a peak. Ultimately, this changes the wind pattern and affects the formation and movement of monsoon clouds," said another metereologist, Ram Chandra Karki.
Co-sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization, the meeting was attended by representatives from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, as well as regional and international organizations.
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