However, according to the Nagarik Research Bureau at Nepal Republic Media, the key to victory in the race for party president is in the hands of a substantial portion of representatives to the NC general convention who have not come out in support of any particular candidate.
Out of 865 representatives from 181 electoral constituencies in 59 districts across the country who were suveyed, one fourth did not want to come out in support of any particular candidate. These will be the game changers when the representatives vote on Sunday to choose their party leader for the next term.
According to Shankar Prasad Khanal, head of Statistics Department at Tribhuvan University (TU) , the fight for the top job is going to be a tough one as 25 percent of those surveyed did not want to say whom they are going to vote for.
"The result depends on how representatives who have not disclosed their voting intentions are distributed among the candidates," he added.
However, the survey has revealed that Deuba is leading the race, followed by Paudel and Sitaula. According to the survey, 39 percent of respondents said they would vote for Deuba, 26 percent said they will vote for Paudel and 6 percent said Sitaula. One fourth, or 25 percent, of respondents did not want to name any of the candidates.
The 13th general convention of the Nepali Congress is going to start Thursday in Kathmandu. Some 3,179 representatives from across the country and abroad are going to vote for a new leadership on Sunday. Leaders including Ram Chandra Paudel, Krishna Sitaula and Sujata Koirala have already announced their candidacies for the post of president, whereas Sher Bahadur Deuba is going to announce his candidacy on Thursday.
The survey had asked the respondents to chose among the names circulating for the post of president, including Deuba, Paudel, Sitaula, Sujata Koirala and Prakash Man Singh. Among the 865 respondents, 1 percent each opted for Singh and Koirala whereas 2 percent opted for candidates other than any of the above.
Likewise, answering the question, 'Who will win as president?' some 42 percent said Deuba, 28 percent said Paudel, 6 percent Sitaula and some 18 percent said they don't know. Likewise, 2 percent said Singh will win, 1 percent said Koirala and 3 percent said others.
The survey also revealed that 87 percent of those who think Deuba will win will actually vote for him, whereas 84 percent of those who think Paudel will win will also vote for him.
The random-sample cross-tabulated survey using SPSS software has also shown that Deuba is more popular among the female voters compared to male voters. Deuba is the favorate among 41 percent of the female representatives surveyed, whereas 39 percent of the males said they would vote for him. Of the total surveyed, 23 percent were female and 77 male.
Likewise, Paudel leads in federal provinces No 1 and 4, Deuba and Paudel are neck and neck in No 2 and 6, and Deuba leads in 3, 5 and 7, according to the survey.
According to the survey, the respondents are hopeful that the 13th general convention will make the party stronger. Some 86 percent of respondents were of the view that the party will emerge stronger from the convention. The repondents are, however, not interested in the panels though a majority of them responded that the number of office bearers should be increased.
Agewise, of the total 865 respondents, 70 percent are in the age group 36 to 45 and 10 percent are 25 to 35, whereas 16 percent are in the age group 46 to 55.
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