KATHMANDU, Oct 31: By the end of this century, global temperatures are expected to rise by 2.5 degrees Celsius. This increase in temperature is projected by taking into account the commitments expressed by 193 countries in the world to reduce carbon emissions.

A review of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for emission reductions submitted to the United Nations by September 23 by the countries that are parties to the Paris Agreement on climate change shows that temperatures will rise as per the calculation. According to the review study conducted by the United Nations Climate Change, which was published last week, emissions will increase by 10.6 percent by 2030 compared to 2010.

A study of a similar nature conducted last year showed that emissions would increase by 13.7 percent. As part of the study, the revised goals of 24 countries submitted since the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) held in Glasgow last year was also reviewed. This year's study is the second since the first synthetic review of the NDC was conducted last year.

A report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2018 showed that the world should reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 45 percent by 2030 compared to 2010. While last year's UN Climate Change report showed that emissions will continue to increase after 2030, this year's report estimates that there will be no increase in emissions after 2030. But the conclusion of the study is that the emission has not decreased to the expected level in this decade.

UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell has said that countries have made some progress this year as emissions continue to decline, but that meeting the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius is "still a long way off". "In order to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, governments around the world need to strengthen their climate change action plans over the next eight years,” Executive Secretary Stiell said in a statement released by the agency. Due to the increase in temperature, droughts, hot winds, and other natural disasters are increasing in the world.

In Glasgow last year, all countries agreed to update their action plans on emissions reduction, but only 24 countries have met this commitment. These countries have set new targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 or 2030.

Last week, UN Climate Change published another report on long-term low emission strategies. The review study of net zero carbon emission targets show that if the stated commitments are implemented honestly, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 68 percent by 2050 compared to 2019. The challenge has been added when some countries have pushed back the goal of net zero carbon emissions, and the report emphasizes the implementation of ambitious action plans by the year 2030.

"At COP-27, world leaders can give this campaign a new direction through mutual discussion and agreement," Executive Secretary Stiell said in a statement. COP27 is expected to discuss and progress on issues such as climate change mitigation, adaptation, mitigation and climate finance.

 
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