Now or never

Published On: December 31, 2016 12:35 AM NPT By: Bhadra Sharma


As our political parties fight they should be mindful of what happened when the first Constituent Assembly was dissolved in May, 2012
January 21, 2018. This is the deadline set by the new constitution for the holding of three sets of elections—local, provincial and federal. This is the all-important landmark before the expiry of the current tenure of the Legislature Parliament. Almost 15 months have elapsed since the constitution was promulgated on September 20, 2015. But the vital issue of elections has been pushed to the backburner, even as we now have just over 12 months before the January, 2018 deadline. 

The only change that Nepalis have been able to witness following constitution promulgation is a change of government. The government of KP Oli formed immediately after constitution promulgation was toppled by the current Nepali Congress-CPN (Maoist Center) coalition, enabling Pushpa Kamal Dahal to make a comeback as prime minister after his ‘unexpected’ (and unceremonious) exit in 2009.

But the days of the second Dahal government are also numbered. If the ‘gentleman’s agreement’ between Congress and Maoists is to be honored, Dahal will have to vacate office for Congress chief Sher Bahadur Deuba this coming April. By this time, as per the agreement, Dahal government will also have to hold local elections. 

April, the beginning of the spring election window, is considered ideal from election prospective. Our climate allows elections only in two seasons: spring and autumn. If the elections are to be held on time, all preparations for local elections will have to be completed before April and for the other two elections before November.

But as we near April, political bickering over government leadership is likely to intensify for our political actors have a poor track record of abiding by ‘gentleman’s agreement’ when it comes to government change. Therefore, in April, when Dahal’s term expires, sparks could again fly and political polarization in the country further increase. 

We can’t say for sure if Dahal will hand over the reins to Deuba. But what is certain is that power-centric politics will affect elections. The failure to hold these elections on time will then invite a serious political and constitutional crisis. 

The task of holding timely elections is getting more and more complicated as so many extraneous issues have surfaced. Differences among major parties and long delays in clearing legal hurdles have already put the Election Commission under pressure, which is now struggling to meet the constitutional deadline. The election laws forwarded by the commission for parliamentary endorsement remain pending. The election body still believes it can hold polls in May and June, provided issues related to poll dates, policies and political approval are first sorted. 

However, the prime minister does not seem keen on local elections under a new set-up. This is why he refuses to accept the report of the Local Bodies Restructuring Commission, a crucial document for local elections. Mounting pressure from Madheshi forces that elections should not be held until the federal disputes are resolved and local units restructured has put the prime minister in a fix. 
Dahal wants to get the amendment bill endorsed, come what may. His aides are busy persuading Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum-Loktantrik and unified Rastriya Prajatantra Party to join the government so that two-thirds majority can be ensured in favor of the bill. Aware of this possibility, the main opposition has been obstructing the parliament for over a month.

None of this is taking the country in the right direction. Instead, the anti-election posturing for petty political interests has added to complications. Differences between ruling and opposition parties have widened and trust deficit is high. 

While time is running out for elections, fresh controversies have emerged after the registration of the second amendment bill in parliament on November 29th. The bill that proposes to change the boundaries of Province 4 and 5, among other things, is not making any headway. 

Meanwhile, the Election Commission is putting pressure on the government to clear the hurdles for local polls before the spring window closes in the third week of June. Concerned about approaching deadline, the EC has already started its voter roll update campaign and other election related work in hill and mountain districts. EC is determined not to miss this ‘spring window’ and is committed to three timely elections so as to prevent a constitutional crisis. It is aware that three sets of elections cannot be conducted within the stipulated time if the local elections can’t be held during the spring window. 

But the government’s delay in clearing legal hurdles and announcing election dates has put the commission in a difficult situation. Lack of unity among the parties has hampered the whole election process. 

Political parties are not ready to face the polls until the situation changes in their favor. Except UML, no other party is ready for elections. The ruling Maoist party is not confident of winning whereas, Nepali Congress, the largest party, is looking to hold elections only after claiming government leadership. The goal is to use state resources and mechanisms to influence results. Moreover, Congress believes it will get votes in Madhesh only after the amendment bill is passed.

Again, aware of this, UML is exerting pressure on the ruling parties to put the amendment bill on hold and go for elections immediately. But Madheshi forces want to increase local units in Madhesh before election dates are announced.

The Madheshi parties want 47 percent of local units in the country to be based in Madhesh and they want to scrap the provision of granting voting rights to head and deputy head of village council and municipality council while electing members of National Assembly. In other words, they want a larger piece of pie for Madhesh. 

Conflicting interests of political parties have lowered the chances of timely elections. But they should be mindful of what will follow. They should think of what happened when the first Constituent Assembly was dissolved in May, 2012. 

Constitutionally, only provincial assemblies formed after elections can decide on boundary issues.

So delaying elections will further complicate things. Parties thus have no option but to at once clear legal hurdles for elections, announce poll dates and then conduct the elections within the stipulated timeframe. There is not a moment to lose.  

The author is with Republica’


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