This is time for the US to set an example that gender does not limit human potentials by any means
Watching the US election campaign is like watching a live soap opera, colorful, fascinating, melodramatic and entertaining.  Nothing has been spared from the public view—sex, money, power-games, revelations (and threat) of cyber leaks, missing emails and foreign power involvements including criminal accusations laced with innuendos and half-baked truths. This US election is unprecedented as female candidate has won the primary for the first time in history to contest presidency.  In contrast Europe and Asia has been fairer and liberal in opening the leadership choices for fairer sex. This election is the time for the US to set an example that a gender does not limit human potentials by any means.  

Election results are unpredictable. But experts opine investigation of Clinton aide’s email was a bombshell, controversial and even irrelevant to this election on hand.  Experts even accuse FBI director of untimely intervention violating Hatch Law. This has been political bonanza for Trump as wide gap in polls has narrowed down by the hour. This neck to neck poll resembles Obama vs Romney 2012 election when the ultimate prize finally went to Obama.  Will the history repeat?

We must review the elections of 2008 and 2012. Certainly it was not America’s white population whose majority voted for Republican McCain and Romney in 2008 and 2012. The demography that put Obama in White House is likely to create a new chapter in the history.  So who will go for Hillary?

First, a class of suburban women voters especially with education will not pardon her opponent’s tryst, attitude, denigration and objectification of women with the statement “I am a star and I can do anything I want.” Also, for majority of women “Rowe versus Wade” decision is critical to keep their productive rights intact and in their control, so that the historical achievement may not be reversed.

Also, let us also not forget that Trump by using tax loop holes has not paid a dime in last 8 plus years.

The Americans with Mexican descent cannot and will not accept his “creation of wall with their money.” Mexico by far is America’s largest single trade partner. It supplies, green vegetables, fruits, other commodity and even labors at one of the least expensive and affordable prices, which the US needs to maintain its farms, gardens and menial works. Let us also not forget that Southwestern US—the rich states like California, Texas, and Florida and as well as Arizona and New Mexico—were all part of Mexico not in far too distant past. The historical ties of culture, geography and language are too strong to be shaken off in one election period.  The 25 percent brown America of which about 66 percent voted for Obama is expected to side again with Hillary Clinton. 

Blacks, who account for 12 to 15 percent of US population, have very little choice but to vote Democratic Party candidate as their aspirations for social, economic equality is on the line and can only be progressed by the candidate who promises a government that befits modern America. 

Another key factor in this election is Trump’s lack of political experience.   Historically, only three presidents have been elected without any prior political experience: Zachary Taylor, Ulysses S Grant and Dwight D Eisenhower. However, all three had served as generals in the Army.

The New World has been the melting pot since the days of early Europeans to the present day where Asians (Chinese, South Asians and others) not only fuel creativity and innovation but maintain, sustain, foster growth and provide much-needed creative edge in science, technology, software and hardware. Trump’s views are too narrow, restrictive, too backward looking and unwise.

His anti-immigration rhetoric and distrust towards the “other” Americans of different nationalities or religions (un-named but clearly Islam in particular is his chosen target) is opposite of American history, culture and spirit. 

Mitt Romney was one point ahead of Barack Obama in tracking poll in 2012, while John Kerry held an identical advantage over George Bush in 2004. Finally, they were defeated by their rivals. I believe Clinton’s consistent edge (even if it is slight in margin) will matter at the very end.   

Trump has a challenge to energize White voter turnout which has declined from 87 percent in 1992 to 70 percent in 2012. This trend will have to be reversed for him to win. Usually states vote quite consistently and predictably in the US. So far, it appears the big critical states this year are Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Smaller critical states are Colorado (swing state), Arizona, North Carolina, New Hampshire and even Utah. The challenge for Hillary is to bring out and flood voting booths with minority voters.

All said and done, in conclusion elections are always partisan in nature. Only a very small percentage of Americans are typically undecided at this stage of the game. Though Trump has improved in polls in recent days he still is consistently lagging behind by a small margin. FBI investigation on email scam is not enough to defeat Clinton.  I cautiously predict Hillary Clinton will win and America will create new history.

The author teaches in Kathmandu University

 
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