It's too early to call  
BUTWAL, June 23: Until a few weeks ago, not many people in Butwal would have hesitated to say the CPN-UML would win the Butwal Sub-metropolitan City elections. The city in the western plains seemed a cakewalk for UML, a party whose influence  in Butwal and its periphery has been multiplying since the win in the first constituent assembly elections in 2008.

But as voting day looms, Butwal's mayoral race has suddenly become unpredictable, with the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN (Maoist Center) and Nepal Janamukti Party, an ethnic party, fielding a joint candidate. The next few days will likely shake things up further. Butwal elects its local representatives on June 28.

By all accounts, UML still remains the most popular in Butwal and some adjoining hill districts.

UML's stance on the demarcation of federal boundaries resounds  with the Pahade communities who make up most of the vote base. Former finance minister Bishnu Poudel, the city's tallest figure in  parliament, has brought unprecedented development.

The party has projected itself as a messiah of the landless and squatters.

But not all are convinced this immense goodwill will  translate into votes.

"Despite its popularity, the numbers doesn't favour UML's mayoral candidate. Vote arithmetic favours NC candidates. UML may win deputy mayor as it has fielded a woman.

But nothing can be said about the mayoral position," said Chok Narayan Shrestha of Butwal Ward  6.

Going by the latest elections in 2013, NC and Maoist Center have more  vote pockets than UML. In the second CA polls, UML candidate Bishnu Poudel won with 19,000 votes, while NC and Maoist Center received 13,000 and 11,000 votes respectively.

"If you count Nepal Janamukti Party's 3,000 pocket votes, it will make a mammoth total. I won't be surprised if NC wins," said Shrestha, who voted NC in 2013.

However, this arithmetic might no longer work as some new villages have been aligned with the sub-metropolitan city. The population  has also ballooned.  An estimated 70 percent of the 63,000 registered voters are expected to vote.

Candidate selections
Both NC and UML have fielded Brahmin men with roots in the western hills as mayoral candidates. NC's  candidate is Lekhraj Pandey  while UML has picked Shiva Raj Subedi.

Both parties are trying to appeal to the Pahade Brahmin and Chhetri voters, while simultaneously avoiding communal tendencies.

"I think they have done a smart thing by fielding candidates from the same community. This gives no clear advantage to any party. If one of the two parties had fielded say a Magar or a Newar,  it would have backfired," said Ram Prasad Pandey, who runs a teashop.

But many including supporters of CPN (Maoist Center) are not happy with the deputy mayoral candidate selection. UML has fielded Goma Acharya, a woman. Maoist Center's deputy mayor candidate  is Jagat Pokharel.

"Maoist should have fielded a woman  as well. All women have rallied behind the UML candidate across the party lines. You should have come to her elections rally. It was huge," said Bigyan Shrestha,  who voted Maoist in  2013.

Hill versus Plain 
Voters in Butwal appear  more concerned over key political issues, including state restructuring and constitution amendment. Since the NC and Maoist coalition proposed to carve a separate province in the plains with some hilly districts, the city has witnessed  huge protests. Most residents of Butwal are new migrants from adjoining districts like Syanja, Palpa, Agrchakhanchi, and Gulmi. Many  own property in those districts, while many others have family ties.

"UML's position on constitution amendment is one reason  it enjoys so much  popularity. Though NC and Maoist Center have already backtracked from the proposal to slice off the hill districts following the opposition of leaders from this region, many still appear skeptical," said Tej Prasad Kandel, a senior advocate.

In order to bolster its position in the western region, UML has not only stood against the amendment but also promised to make Butwal the capital of Province 5. NC, which enjoys greater support in the Madhesi and Tharu communities, has insisted that Gorahi should be the provincial capital. It also sees a bigger gain for the party in separating hills from plains as it would be left in a position to run the provincial government.

 Urban-Rural Divide
There are 19 wards in Butwal Sub-metropolitan City. Thirteen wards fall in the core area.

Six other wards are in the north western part  across the Tinau River. Both parties have fielded  mayoral candidates from the city area and deputy mayoral candidates from the rural areas. Since all parties appear increasingly focused on alluring city voters, voters living across the river are feeling neglected. Moreover, they are not happy with the way the parties are giving priority to political issues over development.

Many say the rural vote might prove decisive as both UML and NC have almost equal support inside the main city areas.

" No one knows for sure whom they will vote this time as they have a history of electing a different party," Bigyan Shrestha. 

Squatter factor
Some 5,000 families live along the banks of the Tinau.   Both NC and UML have been paying extra attention to garner their support. But these landless families  appear undecided. They said  they would decide whom to vote for after holding community discussions.

"We will vote the party that supports our demand. Our biggest concern is the registration of land," said Thaman Singh Thapa Magar, 74, of Sundarnagar. There are around 3,285 voters in Sundarnagar, many of them squatters like Thapa Magar.  A few families that Republica talked to said  they are considering voting UML, while many others said they were still thinking.

"UML arranged drinking water facilities and built the road here. Many are grateful  for  that. It would be great if it helps us register the land," said Sunkali Pariyar.

 
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