KATHMANDU, July 28: Climate change is projected to claim an additional 430,000 lives every year by 2050, with the overwhelming majority of those deaths occurring in low- and lower-middle-income countries, including Nepal, according to a new scientific study.
A report released Monday by the Climate Impact Lab, a U.S.-based research consortium, warns that the world’s poorest countries will bear the brunt of rising temperatures because they lack reliable access to the electricity needed for cooling. While wealthier nations are expected to respond to increasing heat by rapidly expanding the use of air conditioning, millions of people in poorer countries will simply be unable to afford or access the electricity required to protect themselves.
The study projects that climate-related deaths will be ten times higher in poorer countries than in wealthier ones by mid-century. It identifies 18 countries trapped in what researchers call the “Mortality-Cooling Trap”—a deadly combination of extreme heat exposure and limited capacity to increase electricity use for cooling.
The countries include Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar in South Asia, along with Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad in northern Sub-Saharan Africa.
Together, these 18 countries are home to approximately 676 million people. The report estimates that by 2050, around 377,000 people in these countries could die each year as a result of rising temperatures and inadequate access to cooling.
SHIFT for Our Planet: Youths urge authorities to make climate j...
“Air conditioning is a lifesaver,” said Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and the Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago.
“Climate change will undoubtedly lead to greater adoption of air conditioning in today’s wealthy countries. But in far too many parts of the world, people will not be able to respond in the same way. The result is one of climate change’s greatest injustices—many of the countries that have contributed the least to global warming will suffer the greatest loss of life,” Greenstone said in a press statement issued alongside the report.
According to the report, only the world’s wealthiest populations currently have the financial resources and reliable electricity systems needed to power widespread cooling. As incomes rise and energy markets improve, many middle-income countries are expected to increase electricity consumption for cooling. Low-income countries, however, are projected to fall far behind.
The study estimates that climate change will increase per capita electricity consumption by an average of 0.21 gigajoules in middle-income countries—seven times more than the projected increase of 0.03 gigajoules in low-income countries. Researchers note that this increase is so small that it is equivalent to the electricity required to power a single LED light bulb for just four months.
To illustrate the stark inequality, the report compares Niger with Saudi Arabia. Although both countries experience similarly high temperatures, Saudi Arabia’s abundant electricity supply enables widespread cooling, significantly reducing heat-related deaths. In contrast, per capita electricity consumption in Niger is projected to increase by only one-ninth of Saudi Arabia’s level, contributing to an estimated 27,000 additional heat-related deaths each year by 2050.
Lead researcher Ashwin Rode, a fellow at the Climate Impact Lab and director of scientific research at the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute (EPIC), said the findings pinpoint the communities most vulnerable to deadly heat, allowing governments and development partners to prioritize life-saving interventions.
He stressed that expanding electricity access must be accompanied by other adaptation measures, including heat early warning systems, heat action plans, improved healthcare services, urban greening and targeted social protection programs. However, he noted that many of these adaptation strategies still require more rigorous testing to establish their effectiveness.
The report argues that reducing greenhouse gas emissions alone will not be enough to confront climate change. Adaptation, it says, must become an equally important pillar of climate policy. In particular, reforms that make electricity more affordable, reliable and accessible should be viewed not merely as energy policy but as a critical climate adaptation strategy capable of saving lives.
The findings carry particular significance for Nepal, where the frequency and intensity of heatwaves have increased in recent years, alongside prolonged dry spells and unusually high temperatures. Although the country has made significant progress in expanding electricity access, cooling remains out of reach for many low-income and rural households.
The report warns that unless Nepal strengthens both its energy infrastructure and heat adaptation measures, the health impacts of climate change could become substantially more severe in the coming decades, placing millions of vulnerable people at greater risk.
Full report here
https://mcusercontent.com/a2c8943a218e182e242c3479b/files/6024a07b-3527-2f2d-2aaf-f99a1532ba63/CIL_EnergyReport2026_Embargoed.pdf
