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The limits to America’s pent-up demand
Published On: February 25, 2021 08:15 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
With the snapback for durables likely to be finished soon, even rapid vaccination is unlikely to shorten the tough time that lies ahead for the post-pandemic US economy.
A tale of two economies
Published On: December 2, 2020 08:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
This is the best of times and the worst of times. As financial markets celebrate the coming vaccine-led boom, the confluence of epidemiological and political aftershocks has pushed us back into a quagmire of heightened economic vulnerability.
From American to European exceptionalism
Published On: July 24, 2020 06:10 PM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
American exceptionalism has long been the icing on the cake for the Teflon-like US dollar. Those days are gone.
The COVID shock to the dollar
Published On: June 27, 2020 07:00 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
NEW HAVEN – Pandemic time runs at warp speed. That’s true of the COVID-19 infection rate, as well as the unprecedented scientific efforts under way to find a vaccine. It is also true of transformational developments currently playing out in pandemic-affected economies. Just as a lockdown-induced recession brought global economic activity to a virtual standstill in a mere two months, hopes for a V-shaped recovery are premised on an equally quick reopening of shuttered economies.
The End of the US-China Relationship
Published On: May 4, 2020 03:09 PM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
NEW HAVEN – It didn’t have to end this way, but the die is now cast. After 48 years of painstaking progress, a major rupture of the US-China relationship is at hand. This is a tragic outcome for both sides – and for the world. From an unnecessary trade war to an increasingly desperate coronavirus war, two angry countries are trapped in a blame game with no easy way out.
The False Crisis Comparison
Published On: March 23, 2020 10:45 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
NEW HAVEN – In an effort to get a handle on the economic and financial consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, the first instinct is to search for precedents and remedies in earlier crises. Many have pointed to the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) as the most relevant example, especially in the aftermath of the extraordinary monetary-policy actions announced by the US Federal Reserve on March 15. That would be an unfortunate mistake.
When China Sneezes
Published On: February 26, 2020 11:45 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
NEW HAVEN – The world economy has clearly caught a cold. The outbreak of COVID-19 came at a particularly vulnerable point in the global business cycle. World output expanded by just 2.9 percent in 2019—the slowest pace since the 2008-09 global financial crisis and just 0.4 percentage points above the 2.5 percent threshold typically associated with global recession.
Global Economy Without a Cushion
Published On: February 4, 2020 12:10 PM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
NEW HAVEN – With the benefit of full-year data, only now are we becoming aware of the danger the global economy narrowly avoided in 2019. According to the International Monetary Fund’s latest estimates, world GDP grew by just 2.9 percent last year—the weakest performance since the outright contraction in the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009 and far short of the 3.8 percent pace of post-crisis recovery over the 2010-18 period.
The crisis of 2020
Published On: December 25, 2019 09:37 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
NEW HAVEN – Predicting the next crisis—financial or economic—is a fool’s game. Yes, every crisis has its hero who correctly warned of what was about to come. And, by definition, the hero was ignored (hence the crisis). But the record of modern forecasting contains a note of caution: those who correctly predict a crisis rarely get it right again.
After US-China trade war
Published On: November 27, 2019 09:49 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
The political calculus of both China and the US is coming into closer alignment, with each looking for some face-saving truce
Sustainability with Chinese characteristics
Published On: September 26, 2019 12:25 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
NEW HAVEN – In the here and now of climate change, it is easy to lose sight of important signs of progress. China, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, is a case in point. By changing its economic model, shifting its sources of fuel, developing new transportation systems, and embracing eco-friendly urbanization, China’s sustainability strategy is an example of global leadership that the rest of the world should consider very carefully. In the rush to demonize China over trade, the West has missed this point altogether.
Flailing at China
Published On: September 1, 2019 02:00 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
Notwithstanding all the criticism of China in the West, progress on the road to the Next China actually has been quite extraordinary over the past dozen years
China’s long view
Published On: July 29, 2019 01:00 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
In keeping with Xi’s Long March imagery, China’s leadership is preparing for an enduring Cold-War-like confrontation, irrespective of who wins the 2020 election in the US
Trump’s art of the spin
Published On: June 30, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
Policy blunders of epic proportion have become the rule, not the exception. It won’t be nearly as easy to spin the looming consequences
Japan then, China now
Published On: June 5, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
Japan and China became victims of America’s unfortunate habit of making others the scapegoat
False narrative on China
Published On: April 30, 2019 01:00 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
Fixation on China as an existential threat to American Dream has led to tit-for-tat tariffs, escalating security threats and warnings of a new cold war
No middle-income trap for China
Published On: April 4, 2019 01:00 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
The daunting challenges that China faces at this point in its economic development are far more important than whether its slowdown is a gap or a trap
Misreading China’s strength
Published On: February 27, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
The US economy’s current strength appears fleeting. China is in the opposite position
Resolving US-China conflict
Published On: November 26, 2018 01:00 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
China saves too much and the US saves too little. These disparities give rise to multilateral trade imbalances that cannot be resolved by bilateral efforts
Weak case against China
Published On: April 30, 2018 12:18 AM NPT By: Stephen S Roach
The case made by the USTR is an embarrassing symptom of a scapegoat mentality that has turned America into a nation of whiners
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