My Republica

Nouriel Roubini

The author is CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business, NYU

Limits of monetized fiscal deficits

Published On: October 31, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – A cloud of gloom hovered over the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting this month.

Four collision courses

Published On: September 30, 2019 01:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – In the classic game of “chicken,” two drivers race directly toward each other, and the first to swerve is the “loser.” If neither swerves, both will probably die. In the past, such scenarios have been studied to assess the risks posed by great-power rivalries. In the case of the Cuban missile crisis, for example, Soviet and American leaders were confronted with the choice of losing face or risking a catastrophic collision. The question, always, is whether a compromise can be found that spares both parties their lives and their credibility.

Anatomy of coming recession

Published On: August 27, 2019 12:25 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the center of each. Moreover, none of them is amenable to the traditional tools of countercyclical macroeconomic policy.

The great crypto heist

Published On: July 18, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

Cryptocurrencies are routinely launched and traded outside the domain of official financial oversight. The result is crypto land has become an unregulated casino

Growing risk of 2020 recession

Published On: June 17, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

As America and China drift further apart, the space for compromise is shrinking, and the risk of a global recession and crisis in an already fragile global economy is rising

Global consequences

Published On: May 27, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

The global consequences of a Sino-American cold war would be even more severe than those of the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union

Fed’s dovish turn

Published On: March 24, 2019 12:25 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – The US Federal Reserve surprised markets recently with a large and unexpected policy change. When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met in December 2018, it hiked the Fed’s policy rate to 2.25-2.5 percent, and signaled that it would raise the benchmark rate another three times, to three to 3.25 percent, before stopping. It also signaled that it would continue to unwind its balance sheet of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities indefinitely, by up to $50 billion per month.

Mixed economic bag in 2019

Published On: February 21, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

Good news at the start of 2019 is that the risk of an outright global recession is low. The bad news is that growth will fall

Trump vs economy

Published On: January 2, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

Trump is flirting with mutually assured economic destruction. Risk of financial crisis has grown

On cryptocurrencies

Published On: November 21, 2018 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

Crypto-fanatics have seized on policymakers’ consideration of central bank digital currencies as proof that even central banks need blockchain to enter digital-currency game

Killing global recovery

Published On: July 23, 2018 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

In addition to launching a trade war, Trump is also actively undermining global economic order US created after World War II

Broken promises

Published On: February 6, 2018 07:14 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – The financial-services industry has been undergoing a revolution. But the driving force is not overhyped blockchain applications such as Bitcoin. It is a revolution built on artificial intelligence, big data, and the Internet of Things.

Future of America

Published On: December 19, 2017 12:29 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

Trump and the Republicans’ plan to repeal the 2010 Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) would have left 24 million Americans—mostly poor or middle class, many of whom voted for him—without health care.

Plot against 99%

Published On: November 12, 2017 12:53 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

After multiple failed attempts to “repeal and replace” the 2010 Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), US President Donald Trump’s administration now hopes to achieve its first legislative victory with a massive tax giveaway that it has wrapped in the language of “tax reform.

The global economy

Published On: October 12, 2017 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

Will recent growth spurt continue over the next few years? Or is the world experiencing a temporary cyclical upswing?

Dim outlook for Trumponomics

Published On: August 7, 2017 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

The Trump administration is now moving on to tax reform, which will be just as hard, if not harder, to enact.