My Republica

Nouriel Roubini

The author is CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business, NYU

The COVID bubble

Published On: March 7, 2021 08:00 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

With equity markets reaching new heights at a time of rising income and wealth inequality, it should be obvious that today's market mania will end in tears, reproducing the economic injustices of the 2008 crash.

America is the new center of global instability

Published On: January 14, 2021 08:00 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

The US will most likely be the world’s new epicenter of political and geopolitical instability in the months and years ahead. The world is in for a long, ugly, bumpy ride.

The US election’s chaos quotient

Published On: November 2, 2020 04:05 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

A highly contested election would cause further damage to America’s global image as an exemplar of democracy and the rule of law, eroding its soft power. Particularly over the past four years, the country has increasingly come to be regarded as a political basket case.

What's next for the global economy?

Published On: October 13, 2020 04:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

The US and China are now on a collision course in all dimensions and this will continue, to some extent, even if Joe Biden wins next month’s presidential election.

Why Biden is better than Trump for the economy

Published On: October 1, 2020 10:45 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

Joe Biden has a better chance than anyone of rebuilding the Democratic coalition and winning back the support of disaffected, working-class voters.

Is the almighty dollar slipping?

Published On: August 26, 2020 03:00 PM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – The recent sharp depreciation of the US dollar has led to concerns that it may lose its role as the main global reserve currency. After all, in addition to the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary easing—which threatens to debase the world’s key fiat currency even further—gold prices and inflation expectations have also been rising.

The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s

Published On: April 29, 2020 03:00 PM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – After the 2007-09 financial crisis, the imbalances and risks pervading the global economy were exacerbated by policy mistakes. So, rather than address the structural problems that the financial collapse and ensuing recession revealed, governments mostly kicked the can down the road, creating major downside risks that made another crisis inevitable. And now that it has arrived, the risks are growing even more acute. Unfortunately, even if the Greater Recession leads to a lackluster U-shaped recovery this year, an L-shaped “Greater Depression” will follow later in this decade, owing to ten ominous and risky trends.

A greater depression?

Published On: March 29, 2020 08:51 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – The shock to the global economy from COVID-19 has been both faster and more severe than the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and even the Great Depression. In those two previous episodes, stock markets collapsed by 50 percent or more, credit markets froze up, massive bankruptcies followed, unemployment rates soared above 10 percent, and GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 10 percent or more. But all of this took around three years to play out. In the current crisis, similarly dire macroeconomic and financial outcomes have materialized in three weeks.

Financial Markets’ Iran Delusion

Published On: January 22, 2020 09:48 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

LONDON – Following the United States’ assassination of Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani and Iran’s initial retaliation against two Iraqi bases housing US troops, financial markets moved into risk-off mode: oil prices spiked by 10 percent, US and global equities dropped by a few percentage points, and safe-haven bond yields fell. In short order, though, despite the continuing risks of a US-Iran conflict and the implications that it would have for markets, the view that both sides would eschew further escalation calmed investors and reversed these price movements, with equities even approaching new highs.

Trump Will Make China Great Again

Published On: December 26, 2019 08:44 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

Unfettered strategic competition would almost certainly lead eventually from an escalating cold war to a hot war, with disastrous implications for the world

All is not well with global economy

Published On: December 3, 2019 10:39 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

​NEW YORK – This past May and August, escalations in the trade and technology conflict between the United States and China rattled stock markets and pushed bond yields to historic lows. But that was then: since then, financial markets have once again become giddy. US and other equities are trending toward new highs, and there is even talk of a potential “melt-up” in equity values.

Limits of monetized fiscal deficits

Published On: October 31, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – A cloud of gloom hovered over the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting this month.

Four collision courses

Published On: September 30, 2019 01:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – In the classic game of “chicken,” two drivers race directly toward each other, and the first to swerve is the “loser.” If neither swerves, both will probably die. In the past, such scenarios have been studied to assess the risks posed by great-power rivalries. In the case of the Cuban missile crisis, for example, Soviet and American leaders were confronted with the choice of losing face or risking a catastrophic collision. The question, always, is whether a compromise can be found that spares both parties their lives and their credibility.

Anatomy of coming recession

Published On: August 27, 2019 12:25 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the center of each. Moreover, none of them is amenable to the traditional tools of countercyclical macroeconomic policy.

The great crypto heist

Published On: July 18, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

Cryptocurrencies are routinely launched and traded outside the domain of official financial oversight. The result is crypto land has become an unregulated casino

Growing risk of 2020 recession

Published On: June 17, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

As America and China drift further apart, the space for compromise is shrinking, and the risk of a global recession and crisis in an already fragile global economy is rising

Global consequences

Published On: May 27, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

The global consequences of a Sino-American cold war would be even more severe than those of the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union

Fed’s dovish turn

Published On: March 24, 2019 12:25 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – The US Federal Reserve surprised markets recently with a large and unexpected policy change. When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met in December 2018, it hiked the Fed’s policy rate to 2.25-2.5 percent, and signaled that it would raise the benchmark rate another three times, to three to 3.25 percent, before stopping. It also signaled that it would continue to unwind its balance sheet of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities indefinitely, by up to $50 billion per month.

Mixed economic bag in 2019

Published On: February 21, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

Good news at the start of 2019 is that the risk of an outright global recession is low. The bad news is that growth will fall

Trump vs economy

Published On: January 2, 2019 12:30 AM NPT By: Nouriel Roubini

Trump is flirting with mutually assured economic destruction. Risk of financial crisis has grown