So-called Peace Process

International Crisis Group (ICG) in its latest report on Nepal cautions about the collapse of the peace process. For any process to collapse, it has to be working in the first place. And that means there has to be a sustained reduction in violence, which is not the case. So, it is quite illogical, at least from a theoretical point of view, to call the ongoing process of cut-throat competition for power a peace process. It has produced everything but peace.

The international community should make it absolutely clear to the Maoists that anything less than multiparty democracy is not acceptable. So far, the international community has miserably failed in managing Dahal and his men’s expectations.

The real chance of establishing long-term peace in Nepal witnessed a premature death the very day the Maoist party decided to re-brand their guerillas as the Young Communist League (YCL) and covertly store the sophisticated weapons smuggled into the country outside the UNMIN-monitored camps. If Pushpa Kamal Dahal was really serious about establishing long-lasting peace, he would have done what Paul Kagame did in Rwanda. Kagame, unlike Dahal, adopted a well-tested model of establishing peace—prosecution of the perpetrators of violence. In order to facilitate the process of reconciliation, Kagame used an indigenous system called gacaca courts, which comprised of local village councils. The former insurgents confessed their crimes to these councilmen and sought punishment. However, as a reconciliatory measure, most insurgents were forgiven. This process healed the scar of one of the bloodiest ethnic conflicts that ever happened on the face of earth. Today, Rwanda is considered a model for the African renaissance. The average income of a Rwandan since the end of genocide has increased by more than 30 percent. Foreign investors are flocking to Rwanda as the country is getting more and more stable with each passing day.

Unlike Kagame, Dahal rewards the perpetrators of crimes. Remember the nomination of Kali Bahadur Khim, the murderer of Ram Hari Shrestha, as a member of constituent assembly? While Kagame uses both the formal and informal institutions to administer justice and ensure stability, Dahal and his men are constantly engaged in destroying the existing institutions and setting the bar for progress as low as possible so that any progress then after can be called a real progress.

Dahal and his men never outgrew from their guerilla mindset. For real peace to be established, either the Maoists have to realize the negative impact of their actions on peace and stability, which appears increasingly impossible, or they have to be coerced to mend their ways by the international community.

Before cautioning people about the possible collapse of the so-called peace process, the agencies that are closing watching the ongoing process should do a thorough study on the underlying causes that are triggering the collapse. Coming up with a set of recommendations that is applicable to any unstable society is not helpful. One of the main reasons why the ongoing peace process is not working is because what the Maoists want at the end of this process is significantly different from what other mainstream political parties want. So, unless there is a convergence in the strategic end goal and reduction in struggle for political space maximization, this process is bound to fail.

Here is how you can save this process, which primarily started with an idea that the appeasement of the Maoists will somehow yield peace, from getting completely breaking down. The international community should make it absolutely clear to the Maoists that anything less than multiparty democracy is not acceptable. So far, the international community has miserably failed in managing Dahal and his men’s expectations. They should be told in unequivocal terms that in post-cold war era, victory in one election does not provide unlimited mandate to govern and if they continue to abuse the system in the name of people’s mandate, there will be serious consequences. Unless the moderation of the Maoists happens and excesses of the YCL ceases, the democratic forces in Nepal have valid reasons to checkmate the Maoists’ tactical moves.

Again, the reason why this process is not yielding peace is because this is not a peace process anymore. It is an open cut-throat competition to establish political dominance where the Maoist party continues to use the YCL as performance-enhancing drug. Unless the international community forces the Maoists’ to mend ways and fear of the Maoists’ takeover subsides in the democratic camp, there will be more confusion, more chaos, and more reports on the near derailment of the so-called peace process.

hbdulal@gmail.com