Exit Poll Results

Exit poll method

Published On: December 7, 2017 06:00 PM NPT By: Republica  | @RepublicaNepal

The survey was conducted on 7th of December, 2017, the day of second round of Nepal Federal Parliament and  Provincial Assembly Election. Nepal Republic Media in association with Rooster Logic conducted the poll in Kathmandu and Lalitpur at over 114 polling stations. Random sampling was used to identify the respondents. The criteria on respondent selection included reaching to an estimated 50% male and 50% female respondents, and was inclusive for all the age groups of voting population.

Sample size was derived by taking the population of Kathmandu and Lalitpur  separately and getting the required samples as per KREJCIE-MORGAN chart using the following formula:

S = Required Sample size

X = Z value (e.g. 1.96 for 95% confidence level)

N = Population Size

P = Population proportion (expressed as decimal) (assumed to be 0.5 (50%)

d = Degree of accuracy (5%), expressed as a proportion (.05); (margin of error)

Using the above formula for 95% confidence level, the sample sizes for the districts were identified. The sample sizes for Kathmandu and Lalitpur were 3760 and 1128 respectively. 

The poll examined perceptions and voting behavior of the respondents. It does not measure, in any way, the voting count and actual outcome of election, favor certain parties or personnel or try to influence public opinion. Exploratory data analysis was done on the dataset without any alteration.

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