KATHMANDU, July 26: The prediction of the election results has begun even if the date for the election to the Federal Parliament has not been announced. The government itself has projected the election results. According to a two-month study conducted by the Ministry of Home Affairs, if Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist Center compete independently in the elections, it appears that none of them will get a majority.
According to the survey conducted by the Ministry of Home Affairs, based on the current situation, if the Nepali Congress competes independently in the election, it will win 77 seats under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) election system. Similarly, the report suggests that UML will win 70 seats, Maoist Center will win eight seats, Nepal Workers’ and Peasants’ Party (NWPP) and CPN (Unified Socialist) will win one seat each, Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal will win four seats, and the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party Nepal will win two seats under FPTP.
The report was submitted by Home Minister Bal Krishna Khand at the Central Working Committee meeting of the Nepali Congress. Two seats were left vacant. “This report is prepared by mobilizing all agencies of the ministry. While preparing this report, it was seen that the result was different from that received from the local level. The report also studied what effect there had been when voters from a certain place voted for a candidate at the local level and the possible impact it may have on the federal election,” said an official of the ministry.
According to the report prepared by the ministry, it has been concluded that the Nepali Congress, which will win 77 electoral constituencies, will come second in 79 constituencies, third in seven constituencies and fourth in one constituency. Similarly, UML, which will win in 70 electoral constituencies, will be second in 66 constituencies, third in 22 constituencies, fourth in four constituencies, fifth in two constituencies and sixth in one constituency. It is said that the Maoists who are expected to win in eight constituencies will be second in 10 constituencies, third in 83 constituencies, fourth in 29 constituencies, and fifth in 23 constituencies.
According to another report prepared by the ministry, if UML and Maoists compete in the election as an alliance, they will receive a two-thirds majority, winning 145 seats. It is seen that if the two parties come together, they will get 268 seats in the provincial assemblies.
Similarly, the report concluded that if there is an alliance between the Nepali Congress and the Maoists, the parties will win 109 seats in the federal parliament and 219 seats in the provincial assemblies. If the Nepali Congress competes alone while an alliance between other parties (UML and Maoist) is formed, its seats will shrink to 20. Likewise, it is mentioned that UML and CPN (Unified Socialist) will get 56 seats together.
“Despite the use of the ministry's resources, a clear picture could not be derived in some places. Vote counts in some cities may be inaccurate, but the chances are with Nepali Congress and UML,” said a source at the ministry.
The Ministry of Home Affairs, which is in-charge of peace and security in the country, used the police administration, intelligence agencies etc in the survey to prepare the report. The report seemed to suggest that UML has a strong position in the upcoming election. Sources from the ministry say that UML is strong everywhere except in Terai.
The source said that if UML and CPN (Unified and Socialist) come together, the number of seats that UML will win will increase further. “Had there been no division, the UML would have been much stronger than Nepali Congress. Even in this survey, UML appears to be weaker than Nepali Congress by only seven seats. Had there been a favorable presence of the UML in Terai, it would have been stronger than the Nepali Congress,” commented a source at the ministry.
Even the Nepali Congress, which is ahead of the UML by seven seats according to the survey, will not get a majority. UML, too, will not get a majority. When this happens, the key to power will once again be with a third party,” said a ministry source. The Maoists are seeking to ally with the Nepali Congress to gain more seats.
At this time, Home Minister Khand’s report submitted to the Central Committee of Nepali Congress has increased enthusiasm for a Maoist-Congress alliance. But after the report suggested that CPN (Unified Socialist) would win only one seat, Nepali Congress has been made to feel that it does not need the party.
After the report came out, the CPN (Unified Socialist) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal said that he will not rely only on the alliance. He added that the party would have to stand on its own feet.