PM Oli is going to China at a time when the blockade is still fresh in public memory and expectations from China are high
A recent briefing by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi states "Nepal has a corner in China's heart." The idiom captures sentiments of most Nepalis who believe China is there to come to their rescue in case something bad happens to the Himalayan nation. This sentiment welled up last year.Perhaps never before had there been so much praise for China in Nepal's public sphere than during September and October of the year 2015. Indian blockade had pushed the country to the brink. There was acute shortage of cooking gas, vehicle fuel, and essential goods like food and medicine. Incidentally, these were also the times when China announced one after another assistance package for Nepal: 1.3 million liters of free oil, 10,000 induction stoves and assurance to open all border points connecting China. When in September Chinese President Xi Jinping, speaking in the 70th session of United Nations General Assembly, said "all countries are equal. Big, strong and rich should not bully the small, weak and poor," Nepalis cheered him. This was a great consolation to the blockaded nation.
So people said: What if India is cruel, we have China. This was resonated in newspaper editorials, articles and public speeches of leaders. When KP Oli government inked a deal with PetroChina in October, breaking India's monopoly on Nepal's fuel trade, Nepalis felt China is indeed a friend in need.
Five months down the line, this faith is slackening. There is counter narrative in the making: China won't do anything in Nepal that will potentially rile India, so our China hope must be guarded.
Those who say so offer two arguments to drive their point home. One, even if China wants to become a dedicated friend to Nepal, it cannot because there are mighty mountains, the invincible barriers, between Nepal and China. "China could replace India as Nepal's main supplier only if the Himalayas were shifted," Brahma Chellaney, the professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi wrote in Asian Review in December. Do not expect much from China, treat it as "just another neighbor," warned Trailokya Raj Aryal in a recent article in this daily ("The China delusion," February 16).
Two, China will think of India before making any move in Nepal because China is India's biggest trade partner. It won't, goes the argument, jeopardize this business relation for the small Himalayan nation that has nothing to offer to China. Chinese leaders, including Mao Zedong, are cited as suggesting Nepal to maintain relations with India.
In political circles and intelligentsia, however, views on China are either too critical or too ambivalent. Some leaders are against hoping anything from China. "China promises great many things but does nothing," former Finance Minister Ram Sharan Mahat of Nepali Congress was quoted in the Nepali press on Monday. Former Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai was quoted as saying "beware of China." Nepali intelligentsia, even if they have strong affinity for China, do not express it in public for doing so, it is feared, could land them in bad book of India and the West. So the most often cited refrain about China is this: Nepal should maintain cordial relations with both China and India. We cannot be close to one and cold to other. We need both.
Even if China is indifferent in case of Nepal, our collective consciousness does not accept it as such. Critical views on India—with which Nepal and Nepali people share culture, open border, proverbial roti-beti relations and on whom Nepal is dependent on everything—are received well. But say something critical of China and you will be called an Indian stooge. Mandarins in Beijing would do well to bear this reality in mind while welcoming Prime Minister KP Oli in Beijing next week.
PM Oli is going to China at a time when the hardships of the blockade are fresh in public memory, when resentment against India has not died down, nor, for that matter, have expectations from China. This visit is being closely watched not only by India and the Nepali intelligentsia but also by the common people. Oli is going to China at a time when Nepal-India relation is said to be improving, but when there are still uncertainties.
Fuel supply has normalized following the end of the economic blockade last month. But it is doubtful whether India will resume cent percent supplies to Nepal unless Nepal cancels its fuel deal with China.
India cut 40 percent of its aid to Nepal early this month citing Nepal's inability to utilize foreign aid. But that would be a simplistic reading, says Ramesh Nath Pandey, former Foreign Minister of Nepal. "This is the time when Nepal is battling the worst adversities. This is the time when however much donors give to Nepal, it won't be enough, the time when Nepal needs more foreign aid than ever," he told me recently. "It's like registering a vote of no confidence against the government of Nepal."
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered the best possible hospitality to Oli in New Delhi last month. But there was no joint communiqué, nor did Modi welcome Nepal's constitution. The possibility of India using Madheshi parties yet again to pressure Kathmandu looms. After all, Madheshi Morcha—the loose alliance of Madheshi parties—which with the help of India put the country under siege for five months, has threatened to resume stern protests including border blockade. Talking to Republica earlier this month Rajendra Mahato, a key leader of Madheshi Morcha, warned: "If the government fails to address our concerns even during this period... we could even have to restart the border blockade." Fear in Kathmandu is that border blockade could be resumed, either by India or by Madheshi Morcha.
There is no denying that Nepali leaders have failed to properly balance India and China. They have turned to China only when India has tried to strangulate them. When India starts being 'nice' China is forgotten. This is what had happened after the 1990 political change. But the compulsion of a country like Nepal, which suffers due to Indian highhandedness every few decades, is that it cannot do without playing China card. When you are between two powerful neighbors and one pushes you to the wall, the only way you save yourself is by boasting that you have another neighbor to fall back on. This may be undiplomatic but it is true.
To Beijing mandarins, Oli might look like the head of government of a country which chose to look south first and who has come to its door crestfallen. He may look like a person pleading for help. But it is the fate of a country like Nepal to survive on generosity of others.
It is possible that agreements of far reaching consequences will be signed during Oli's China trip. But people want something tangible, immediately. The most-awaited commercial oil deal will be meaningless if Nepalis have to depend only on Kerung route—which is too far from Kathmandu—to use Chinese oil.
China should open Tatopani border immediately by seeking assurance from Nepali side for security, if that is the issue. Foreign Minister Kamal Thapa had predicted in February that Khasa border would be opened "earlier than many expect" but it has not happened. Closure of this border has rendered entire Sindhupalchowk a ghost town. Business transactions worth billions of rupees are in stake. If this border was up and running during the blockade, Kathmandu would not have had to suffer much. The container loaded in Tatopani can reach Kathmandu within a matter of four hours.
President Xi had said at the UN Assembly big countries should put "justice before interests" while dealing with small countries. Nepalis want to believe he really meant it.
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