Pushpa Kamal Dahal, as the all-powerful chairman of the largest party in the Constituent Assembly, still has the most legitimate claim at Baluwatar. But the breathtaking lack of leadership skills and character that he has displayed since he came to open politics, and especially after he became prime minister, has eroded much of everyone’s confidence in him.
Dahal may think otherwise but much of the responsibility for this belongs to him. After persuading his party to abandon a decade-long war, Dahal had the chance of becoming a savior of the process. But he quickly squandered his political capital as he shamelessly tried to manipulate politics, undermine rival political parties, backstab his own comrades, default on domestic promises and displayed crude immaturity in understanding and handling geopolitics.
To be fair to him, he didn’t have any experience of statecraft and managing the complications of multiparty politics. But his failings were results of more than just lack of experience. He saw politics as a relentless game of lies and maneuverings, devoid of ethics.
Not that he wasn’t given a benefit of doubt for his mistakes but he, instead of making amends, pushed on relentlessly.
Everyone knew that Maoists didn’t have 34,000 combatants during the wartime, yet hardly anyone objected to it when 34,000 PLA men and women entered cantonments and drew salary from taxpayer’s money. Everyone knew that Young Communist League (YCL) was nothing but a ready-to-strike force comprising former hardcore combatants. It was also no secret that Maoists had much more weapons than 3,000 plus vintage rifles that they submitted to the UN, to be sealed in the containers. Dahal signed agreements to de-barrack YCL, return seized property and stop intimidation more than half a dozen times. But each time he defaulted on his promises.
That was the price for peace, so we thought.
Sorting out the leadership issue is a little more complicated than it appears from outside and it may take a much longer time than many of us think.
In the meantime, India was also so much in love with Dahal that it was willing to overlook all his weaknesses. When NC and UML leaders demanded that Dahal fulfill his promises before becoming prime minister after the CA election, none other than Indian envoys publicly criticized the parties for trying to ‘subvert’ public mandate. India in a tacit understanding with Dahal also denied the chance of first presidency to late Girija Prasad Koirala. Despite some misgivings about Dahal’s China trip, India-Maoist bonhomie continued well after Dahal’s visit to New Delhi as a prime minister. His 43-minute one-on-one sweet talk with Dr Manmohan Singh, recorded in eight-page-long texts, was good enough to win Indian establishment’s hearts. The real problem began much later when Dahal started to forget what he had promised and Indians realized how they were deceived.Amidst souring relations with parties and India, Dahal made dangerous moves. Swayed by hardliners in his party, he began playing the so-called China card, a mistake Mahendra had made some four decades ago. The monarchy gone, China indeed needed someone’s loyalty in Kathmandu, but it wasn’t willing to go head-on with India on Nepal issue. Not that China cannot confront India policy on Nepal; it has all the might to do so, but it is unlikely to, at least in the foreseeable future. China has a much more sensible foreign policy approach, and it understands the importance of its bilateral trade with India and it is also aware of Indian sensitivities in Nepal.
Dahal also underestimated sensitivities attached to Nepal Army. Political parties were willing to tolerate Maoists´ dabbling with peace but they were never ready to give in on the army, an institution they always thought was their last deterrence against the Maoists. But Dahal misread this as well and took aim at the army.
Four years into open politics, Dahal now has a reputation of a naïve political adventurist, and a manipulator obsessed with power. With such an image, and sense of betrayal still fresh in the minds of leaders in Nepal and India, Dahal’s chance of making back to Baluwatar are slim, to say the least.
But it’s not going to be easy for anyone to sideline Dahal and become the next prime minister. If not Dahal, the most natural alternative would be Dr Baburam Bhattarai. He is fresh; had a good stint at finance ministry, even if brief; and above all, there seems to be a greater degree of national acceptance in his name. In a country perennially cheated by good leadership, Nepalis seem willing to take chance on him, and see if this man is going to be different.
But party insiders say Dahal is never going to accept Dr Bhattarai as the next premier; instead, he will be ready to hand over the premiership to Nepali Congress. Dahal’s public revelation, the other day, that NC is demanding the premiership could just be his preparation to go in that direction.
Ram Chandra Poudel has since long believed that the premiership will eventually come to him. Poudel will have to face two hurdles: First, Dr Bhattarai-camp is likely to mount a challenge against Dahal if he decides to support Poudel. Second, it’s hard to believe how UML central committee will come to a decision to support Poudel or any NC leader for that matter. Don’t rule out imminent split in UML over the issue of next premiership and a splinter group supporting Dahal as the next prime minister.
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