In more than 5,000 years of history of the land we call Nepal today with pride, there is no record of sky falling anytime. Dynasties collapsed, regimes changed. But the sky did not fall. We will believe that the sky will certainly not fall. However, should it be the reason for your complacency? Because the sky does not fall, can anyone get away without being accountable to the people for the delay in decisions and, of all the decisions, the decision on constitution and peace process?
Nepali people realize that constitution drafting is a difficult task especially when there are such thorny issues along its path. There are conflicting voices and reason does not always prevail when emotions run high. This is understandable. But the leaders set the targets tight. They raised the expectations. They did not fulfill them. And yet, they do not think it fit to provide proper reasons for the delay. Most of the delays happened due to their inept attitude. Many months were lost in political imbroglio, in trying to push out a government and then in forming a new government. Did people vote to see this game being played over and over again? We have heard there will be a definite solution within seven days, not once, but several times in the past. Many such seven days have passed but nothing much has happened. Why do you all make such statements, if there is no real intent and capability for fulfilling the promises made publicly?
Yes, sky will not fall is a Nepali adage. This was the reason for our predecessors to be less innovative, less entrepreneurial. There was no sense of urgency. We did not look for competitive strength because we thought the sky would not fall under any circumstances. We gave up on our course. But today´s youth no longer believes in this adage. For them, the sky will fall if they lose opportunities. They want to see the change in their lifetime and they no longer believe in fatalism. They think they can make their future. They want to seize the opportunity wherever and whenever they find it. They do not want to lose the opportunity saying, okay, what the heck, the sky will not fall.
We did not look for competitive strength because we thought the sky would not fall under any circumstances. We gave up on our course. But today´s youth no longer believes in this adage. For them, the sky will fall if they lose opportunities. They want to see the change in their lifetime and they no longer believe in fatalism.
The leaders have not realized that today´s youth is totally frustrated with them. They have not been able to connect with them. Yes, peace process and constitution writing has been the biggest casualty of "sky will not fall" attitude. But no less has been the impact on the economy. It is moving at a pace much lesser than what the potentials offer.The government announced this year as Nepal Tourism Year with a campaign target of one million international visitors. In less than four months of the fanfare, the country has relapsed into another bout of Nepal bandas. With lots of difficulty, our tourism business was able to regain some of the lost ground. Now, they find it pretty hard convincing the external partner not to cancel the bookings. Few tourists come to seek the adventure of being in banda, many come for unhindered trip to see the charm of our culture and natural beauty. Even in this scenario, our leaders might respond by saying the sky will not fall. But many in the tourism businesses who draw out loans from banks and those who could not get loans from banks due to liquidity tightening in the past few months have resorted to high-interest borrowing from informal sources, hence any decline in anticipated tourist inflow would be disastrous, tantamount to falling of the sky in their lots.
They believed in government´s promise that there will be no banda for one year. They invested to expand the facilities. But they are being led to the path of poverty. Small restaurant owners and lodge operators in trekking trails wait each day to see if a tourist drops in. When the tourist flow is low, their hopes sag. The higher the number of tourists, the higher will be the domestic employment creation, as many studies conclude. Leaders make loud noises that they will help create employment. How will employment be created when there are disruptions again? Why was something not done to prevent banda from recurring? If tourism underperforms this year, the consequences on the banking sector that is yet to fully recover from real estate investment setback last year will be very bad.
The power outage problem started in the same year that the peace deal was signed. It is getting worse each year. But despite all talks and worries, nothing seems to be happening. There has been no visible move toward addressing this issue. Wherever the work is undergoing, there are disruptions with sufficient political backing. Why does politics find pleasure in disruptions and not in construction? It is because of the thinking that the sky will not fall!
For nearly a month now, people all over Nepal are queuing up to get a liter of petroleum products. For any sensible person, it is a very pitiable scene. Queuing has a cost. For a taxi operator and all public vehicles, there is an opportunity cost in the form of lost revenues. In effect, each of us is paying more for a liter of petrol than the price the government monopoly is charging. It seems that for our leaders low prices are more important than availability. Think of the productivity loss that is happening due to these unnecessary queues. And to add insult to the injury, the government went to media saying the Indian government has accepted request for the extension of trade credit for a month-long supply, which, as per the media, was later denied by an agency of the requested government. This is a shame.
Any primer on economics says that prices go up when supplies are low. This is how most of the markets in Nepal, most of it in the rural areas without any knowledge of economic theories, of course, operates. Be it vegetable or grain market, farmers and local traders have insights to set the prices. Right prices create incentives for supply increase. Then another force, high supply-low demand, drives the prices downwards. But the argument we often hear from those who lead us is that it is not the right time to raise the power tariff when there is no sufficient supply. Then how will the incentives be created to produce more and increase supplies? We are in this trap for the last five years and there is no sight that we will overcome this in the near future. It is pathetic. This is the result of sheer complacency.
Even as there are weaknesses in the political process, an understanding of the fundamental principles of economic management can at least be achieved. The list can be short, so that compliance can be ensured. If only this much is done, people will not worry much about the political wrangling that happens inside Singha Durbar or inside constituent assembly premises.
Next time, please, do not justify your weaknesses with "sky will not fall" adage. Confess them and give youths the confidence that you will not repeat the mistakes of the past.