The loss of credibility of moderate Madheshi Morcha forces will create a vacuum in Tarai
Finally, Madheshi Morcha leaders have withdrawn sit-ins at Birgunj-Raxaul checkpoint. Other border points where Morcha cadres had initiated sit-ins were under operation long before. This blockade was part of indefinite strike called by Morcha leaders that led to the closure of most government offices, educational institutions, industries, shops, transport and other commercial activities in Tarai. But if the six-month-long agitation for changes in the constitution will also end with opening of Birgunj border is open to question.One objective of the Madheshi leaders behind the blockade was to create pressure on Kathmandu to accommodate their concerns in the constitution. They took to agitation in Tarai when Kathmandu ignored their grievances in constitution-making. Two undivided Madhesh provinces was the bottom-line of the agitation. Other demands included proportional representation of Madheshis in all state mechanisms, delimitation of electoral constituencies for the House of Representatives and National Assembly on population basis and removing discriminatory clauses on citizenship.
However, instead of addressing these issues, Kathmandu gave a different twist to the event and held India responsible for the blockade to divert people's attention. Though India refuted those charges it soured the relations between two close neighbors.
During the standoff between Kathmandu and Madhesh, the Madheshi people suffered most. About 55 protesters were killed and many more succumbed to injuries. Besides, the industries, agriculture and other economic activities were affected. Children were denied educational opportunities as schools and colleges were closed. Scarcity of goods and lack of employment opportunities made life miserable.
Blockade of key border points was only partial. Even at the height of the blockade, hundreds of trucks of goods, including LPG gas and oil, kept coming to Nepal. Until recently 1,300 to 1,500 truckloads of goods used to enter into Nepal from India each day through different customs points other than Birgunj-Raxaul. This is the reason why there used to be heavy traffic jams in different parts of Kathmandu even while blockade continued at different border points. There was adequate supply of petroleum products from India.
Nevertheless, the prices of daily goods rocketed. People had to pay exorbitant prices for essential goods. But it was not due to the shortage of goods but more due to mismanagement and an open reign given to smugglers and black-marketers.
Apart from transport services, most manufacturing industries, hotels, tourism and other economic activities were affected. Unemployment also worsened. The government lost revenue from the customs, income tax and value added tax—the life-lines of our economy. According to an estimate, the country lost US $2 billion a month due to the blockade. It could reduce our economic growth to one percent or even lead to negative growth. India also had to pay a price. It suffered the loss of over US $4 billion due to reduction in trade between the two countries.
Vested interests in Kathmandu deliberately prolonged the blockade. It helped certain groups to continue in power and amass for themselves the country's vital resources. Besides it also helped the smugglers and black marketers. Recent data indicates that it was through the smuggling that half of Nepal's total needs for petroleum products, LPG gas and other essentials were met.
The ultra-nationalist forces tried to play China card. They created an impression as if China was going to make up for the scarcity of goods in Nepal. One after another, several delegations were sent to Beijing for this purpose. But nothing came of it. China provided oil to Nepal in grant and its oil was not able to meet Nepal's demands even for a week. No other meaningful support was extended by China even during the period of crisis.
It was forgotten that China has never supported any regime in Nepal that works against the interests of its own people—be it during the 1989-90, 2005-06 or now.
Six months later, Madheshi Movement seems to have somewhat slackened along with opening of border points. Besides, Morcha leaders have also been unable to meet expectations of common Madheshis.
However, one major achievement of this agitation is that people have become politically conscious about their rights. Madhesh has emerged as a strong political force with the proven capability to affect socio-economic and political life of the whole country. Madheshi issue has now been internationalized. People in many countries are aware of the sufferings of Madheshi community and they are now sympathetic to their cause. The social, electronic and print media both within and outside the country gave wide coverage to Madheshi issue. China has also indicated that it is not against Madheshis.
Morcha leaders have announced fresh protest programs to press for revision of the new constitution. They have not taken ownership of the constitution and its amendments yet. So agitation in Terai is likely to continue.
However, the loss of credibility of moderate Madheshi Morcha leaders will create a vacuum in Tarai. Possibly the vacuum thus created would be filled by new elements who could prove more pragmatic in their approach than present leadership. But for Kathmandu it might be more difficult to deal with such new forces as their commitment to secure dignified place for Madheshis in the constitution through peaceful means is far greater.
The author is an economist