But for how long will future generations see that blinding polar white anchoring the only place of human existence? And for how long will the glaciers of the high mountains, being in the Himalayas, the Alps or the Andes, remain a source for much needed water to growing populations? While climate negotiators are now gathering in Copenhagen to address global warming, we should all keep in mind that the future of the global climate system may be determined by our actions – or inaction – over the next few years to halt the speed of melting ice.
The cryosphere – the regions of our Earth covered by snow and ice – has long been considered the “canary in the coal mine” for global warming. We have known ever since the very first report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990 that the Arctic was warming more rapidly, twice as fast as the rest of the globe. We have for some years heard about melting glaciers in the Himalayas, and we have seen the glaciers topping Mt Kilimanjaro slowly disappearing by 85 percent in the past century. We watched the 12,000-year-old Larsen B ice shelf of Antarctica collapse in a few weeks’ time in 2002.
We already knew things were bad. We now know the future of snow and ice on our blue-white planet is actually much worse.
Last April, Vice President Al Gore and I charged an expert panel of scientists to summarize the state of the globe’s ice sheets and snow. Those scientists have completed their work and we will hand that report over to the UNFCCC in Copenhagen on Dec 14. We expected sobering reading. What we have is a loudly ringing alarm from every corner of the cryosphere, an alarm bell of melting ice:
- Snow cover is decreasing and land glaciers from the Himalayas to the Alps are disappearing at rapid rates.
- Loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased threefold just in the last decade.
- Once apparently immune to the ice loss affecting other regions, even mighty Antarctica is showing signs of overall ice loss now as temperatures rise.
What does this mean for the peoples of the world, most of whom live nowhere near ice and snow? It just might mean everything, in terms of our future:
- Land glacier loss may lead to widespread water shortages. Around two billion people today depend on water from the Himalayan Plateau alone, the earth’s “Third Pole.” Not enough data are available to make quantitative assessments as to how extensive this issue is but the risk and potential consequences are so large that the lack of knowledge must not be used as an excuse for not taking action.
- The latest (2007) IPCC estimates of 0.5 meters sea level rise by 2100 are now considered bare minimum. Because of accelerated melting on Greenland and elsewhere, the anticipated rise by 2100 may reach 1.5 meters, impacting hundreds of millions of people.
- Loss of snow and sea ice is decreasing the reflectivity of the earth’s surface and thaw of permafrost releasing more methane and CO2 than anticipated. Both these changes will lead to much faster warming of the entire globe.
Melting ice therefore is not just about those who live in the mountains or in the Arctic. It is about the future of all of us.
What does this mean to the nations of the world, gathering now in Copenhagen? More than anything else, world leaders need to agree to strong and aggressive cuts of CO2 emissions. Nothing else will stay the melting of ice and snow in the coming centuries; and because CO2 is so long-lived, to have any hope of preserving the cryosphere we need to begin those cuts today, not next year, not post-2020: now. Our climate negotiators have gone as far as they can on their own. What is needed in Copenhagen are visionary leaders: Those willing to look beyond narrow national interests, or issues of blame and compensation, to the threatened future of our increasingly fragile planet.
We also need an emergency plan for the cryosphere, acting now to preserve as much global ice and snow cover as we possibly can. That means reducing short-lived climate forcers not currently covered under any climate agreement, such as black carbon and ozone and more focused attention on short-lived climate gases such as HFCs and methane.
Black carbon contributes as much as 12 percent to overall global warming; and even more in the cryosphere, where it darkens snow and ice to vastly increase melting. Recent studies show that much of the black carbon falling in the Arctic comes from springtime crop burning in the US, Canada and Russia: We all need to do our part to stop this harmful practice immediately. Globally, smoke from old-fashioned cookstoves not only produces black carbon but kills millions of women and children each year. Replacing dirty stoves with cleaner ones, especially around the Himalayas, will save lives and help the cryosphere at the same time. Methane – a Kyoto gas responsible for at least 25 percent of global warming and more at the poles in springtime – also needs more urgent attention. Even as levels of methane from greater permafrost melting keep rising, we need to cut human sources of methane all we can.
The Copenhagen agreement needs both mid-term and long-term goals, for 2020 and 2030 and 2050; and certainly, these need to be aggressive ones. But we should not be fooled by those dates into thinking our margin for action to save the cryosphere is equally long. Countries as far apart as Nepal and Norway have much in common when it comes to protecting the cryosphere from melting. Let us therefore join hands. The time to act is here and now. Our planet, shining white and blue among the stars, may not get a second chance.
Writer is Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs